THE INFLUENCE OF OVERALL CONSUMPTION LEVEL ON ROAD FATALITIES IN BRAZIL FROM 1996 TO 2017

Resumo

Several studies in economics evidence the influence of economic activity on road accidents. This study contemplates this relationship for the case of Brazil, more precisely, we examine the relationship between road fatality rates and one measure of economic activity in particular: the overall level of consumption per capita. In Brazil, we observe a certain similarity in the evolutionary pattern between consumption and road fatalities. The empirical evidence presented in this paper suggests that most of the month-to-month variations in road fatality rates can be explained by seasonal fluctuations and variations in the consumption level of the current month and of a few preceding months. Controlling for seasonal fluctuations, variations in consumption answer for 22% of the month-to-month variations in road fatality rates according to the model proposed in this paper. These results preconize consideration of the level of economic activity when evaluating the effect of interventions in the Brazilian traffic context, under the risk of over or underestimation of their true effects. Equally important, the consideration of economic activity can contribute to the accuracy of forecasts related to traffic.